PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Four Downs: Oregon defeats Ohio State as Dan Lanning finally gets his big-game win

Reviewing the biggest moments of Week 7 in college football,PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center starting with the biggest game of the day in the Big Ten.

First Down: Oregon ― to three, or not to three?

Somewhere in the mass of humanity on the field at Autzen Stadium late Saturday night was Oregon coach Dan Lanning, literally exhaling after a brief television interview.

You could see him say the word, "whew."

He got lucky. Really lucky.

This time, he wasn't on the short end of a mistake in a big game. This time, Ohio State quarterback Will Howard lost track of time on the final play of the game, and scrambled into the middle of the field to try and set up a shorter field goal as the clock ran out on Oregon's 32-31 victory.

The irony of it all is not lost in the moment.

Two years ago, Lanning fell short trying to convert a fourth down in a tie game late in the fourth quarter against Washington instead of kicking a field goal, and the Huskies got prime field position and eventually kicked the game-winner. Last year, three failed fourth down calls – instead of kicking short field goals – cost the Ducks a victory over the Huskies.

Both games were three-point losses.

Fast forward to Saturday night, Oregon trailed 28-22 late in the third quarter, and instead of taking a short field goal and three points, Lanning tried to convert from the Ohio State 2. The result was the same as last season: an odd play call, where the quarterback (Dillon Gabriel in 2024, Bo Nix in 2022-23) was left with limited options.

Had Oregon taken the points, it would've had a four-point lead on the final drive, and Ohio State would've needed a touchdown to win the game. The lead was one instead, and but for Howard losing track of time, it could've backfired again.

HIGHS AND LOWS: Winners and losers from Week 7 in college football

To be fair to Lanning, Oregon had a missed field goal and botched an extra point earlier in the game, and that could've been a deciding factor in his decision. Even with all that bad history in the near rearview.

The win was Lanning's first against a top five team, and moved him to 3-3 vs. Top 10 teams at Oregon. But the field goal drama isn't over, everyone.

Oregon and Lanning had another field-goal issue against Washington in last year's Pac-12 championship game, and more than likely will get another shot at Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game. Maybe, just maybe, the lesson has been learned.

Take the points.

Second Down: The wild SEC race

The big weekend arrived in the best conference in college football, and the only certainty is No. 1 Texas remained unbeaten.

Other than that, well, let's just say it was a full plate of ugly.

Alabama didn't show up for the second consecutive game, this time against a South Carolina team that scored all of three points last week in a home loss to Ole Miss. Maybe at this point, we should all accept that this is who Alabama is ― a middle of the road SEC team.

Anyone still believe Alabama is among the nation's elite after the back-to-back uninspired efforts in a loss to Vanderbilt – a week later, yep, still happened – and a last-second win over South Carolina that the Gamecocks gave away in the second half?

"The small things add up," first year Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer said. "And we find ourselves in a fight to the end."

That's being gracious to an Alabama offensive line that couldn't protect quarterback Jalen Milroe (four sacks, near 50 percent pressure rate), and a defense that continued to give up big plays in big moments (explosion plays of 36, 31 and 23 yards).

Meanwhile, we give you Georgia -- which somehow lost to that same Alabama team three weeks ago. If you think that's odd, consider the behavior of Dawgs coach Kirby Smart in a way too close 41-31 win over lowly Mississippi State.

With Georgia up 17 in the fourth quarter, Smart shoved Mississippi State quarterback Michael Van Buren while trying to argue with an official. And that was the most physical moment of the game for anyone wearing the "G" logo.

Then there's Florida and Tennessee, where the bitter rivals set back tackle football for decades with the ugliest, poorest-coached game of the year. At one point, Florida had a field goal at the end of the first half taken off the board for 12 players on the field.

On the field goal unit. After a stoppage in play. And I know this is going to shock you, but those three points were the difference in a game that Tennessee eventually won in overtime.

It wasn't much better for Ole Miss in the first half against LSU. At one point, the Rebels had consecutive drives end with a botched 32-yard field goal, and on downs at the Tigers 4 when it couldn't get a foot of yardage.

Not surprisingly, the game ended in overtime – after LSU tied it at the end of regulation – when Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier threw a 25-yard touchdown pass to Kyren Lacy.

Moral of the story: take the points.

Third Down: Penn State(ment)

First, the critical: Penn State traveled 2,000 miles and won a regular season Big Ten game against someone not named Ohio State or Michigan. You know, what the Lions have done every opportunity since 2021.

But that's not the story. Nor is quarterback Drew Allar's career game in the overtime defeat of Southern California, or his elite play in a big game (a big question prior).

The story here is Tyler Warren, Penn State's mountain of a tight end (6-feet-6, 260 pounds).

He flanked out wide at receiver. He took snaps at quarterback, and completed a pass for nine yards.

And he caught 17 passes, an NCAA record for tight ends. Warren had 224 yards receiving, and caught a 34-yard touchdown pass on a beautifully designed throwback play by new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki.

If you want to know why Penn State is now a legit threat in the race for national title, it's Kotelnicki and Allar -- and the emergence of Warren, a matchup nightmare for defenses. Oregon had success using tight end Terrance Ferguson against Ohio State, but focused more on the wide receivers.

Ohio State plays a majority of two safety high on defense, and heavy zone coverage. That leaves the tight end to work on linebackers, a significant advantage for Warren and Penn State in the Nov. 2 game in Happy Valley.

Fourth Down: Welcome to the party, Pitt

They had 277 total yards of offense. Quarterback Eli Holstein played the worst game of his brief career.

And Pittsburgh still found a way to build a lead and hold off California to move to 6-0 for the first time in 42 years. The Panthers did it like they have for years under coach Pat Narduzzi: a suffocating defense, and just enough offense.

Pitt sacked Golden Bears quarterback Fernando Mendoza six times, and increased its season total to 18. Since 2019, the Panthers have an NCAA-best 248 sacks. The difference this season is they have a complementary offense for the first time since Kenny Pickett led the team to the 2021 ACC championship.

Pitt has beaten no one of significance, and should be 7-0 heading into a critical ACC game at SMU on Nov. 2. Pitt gets Clemson at home on Nov.16, but finishes the season at Louisville and Boston College.